Strange Anomalies in the Curves of Death Statistics in Europe

Something strange happened this summer... 

During the pandemic, I looked at the death statistics published on the EuroMOMO portal. Occasionally even now. I remember them and take a look. I am usually interested in whether those strange humps from the COVID era are still there and whether the epidemic is already over or is still ongoing. You may object that the epidemic ended a long time ago. Well, I think it is not that simple. You only need to take a quick look at the graphs. 

Where is the epidemic?

Do you really see it there? I don't, at least not much—or it hasn't ended. There is a certain wave there, but it seems that epidemics recur almost every year, practically up to the present day. But they were there before that as well; it is just no longer visible because the older data is not there. Isn't that strange? After all, we are told that the effective mRNA vaccine dealt with the epidemic, as all the mouthpieces controlled by the World Health Organization (WHO) say.

But I don't see it in the total mortality figures. It is an average from many European countries, and Israel is even included. So it seems that there were several peaks; of course, the first peak is C19, that is visible, but what happens afterward?

In the second graph, the C19 pandemic is also somewhat visible as a peak at the turn of 2020/2021, but the graphs are still somehow strange. Let's stay with 2021 for a moment: we see a downward trend throughout the first half of the year, and the peak at the turn of 2021/2022 is also lower, essentially the lowest winter peak in the period under observation. We are looking at statistics for old people, older than 75. It is important to realize this: their immune systems are generally no longer in good condition, and an encounter with the virus tends to be fatal. If vaccination worked, it was only during that first year; it could have meant a reduction of the peak by about 50%. Okay, that would be acceptable. But it lasts much longer than simply steeply going up and steeply going down. The number of deaths will be proportional to the area under the curve, not the peak. But why is the peak at the turn of 2022/2023 higher than the first one? The number of old people must have been reduced by the pandemic. Could someone please explain this to me?

The graph at the beginning of 2021 is also very strange. The usual peak is approximately 40,000, but this year it rises slowly and continuously upward; it is not a curve like, for example, in 2023/2024, meaning steeply upward and steeply downward. There is another oddity.

There is a second peak in the first half of 2021, but this time only among younger people aged 45 to 64. People do not normally die at this age yet. This can also be seen in the graphs, but during the three years of the pandemic, many people in this age group died. Did some virus appear that was attacking a larger proportion of the younger population? I don't think so. One possible influence comes to mind; it could be related to vaccination, which affects the immune system.

If you are wondering what the peak on the graph for ages 15 to 44 represents, it is Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent civilian and security-force casualties.

But there is still one last wave of deaths on the graphs from this year. What is it?

We can enlarge it by displaying individual countries. Notice that excess deaths here are several times higher than during the worst days of the epidemic. This is not insignificant. In France, the number is really very high. You can also compare it with COVID.

This "hump" is visible only on the graphs for France, Germany, and Belgium. So I asked artificial intelligence.

What happened in week 26 in France, Germany, and Belgium that caused mortality to suddenly increase according to EuroMOMO? 

"The sudden increase in mortality in France, Germany, and Belgium during week 26 of 2026 was caused by an extreme and deadly heat wave that affected Western and Central Europe.

  • Overall toll: During the critical week at the end of June, the EuroMOMO system recorded more than 14,000 to 16,000 excess deaths above the normal average in Europe.
  • Most affected groups: The heat wave affected the adult population across all age groups over 45. In absolute numbers, however, the most deaths occurred among people over 85 and chronically ill patients.
  • Situation in Belgium: In the Belgian region of Wallonia, the daily number of deaths reached 313 during the hottest days, surpassing even the daily peaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Belgium as a whole recorded 39% more deaths than usual between June 18 and 29.
  • Germany and France: In Germany, approximately 14,000 heat-related deaths have been recorded since the beginning of the warm season. In both France and Germany, the increase in mortality affected all monitored adult age groups.

Why did the heat kill so suddenly?

In addition to the record temperatures themselves, the high mortality was contributed to by the fact that European households are not normally equipped with air conditioning. In addition, many residents refused to use air-conditioning units or were unable to use them due to concerns about overloading the power grid and high energy prices. Extreme drought and accompanying forest fires further worsened the situation in the affected regions." 

But if we look at the other countries, we don't see anything like that. I assume they were also hit by the heat wave, but people were not dying in excessive numbers. Take Greece, for example; they are probably accustomed to the heat, and there is no peak. These peaks really occur only in these three countries. Are people in these countries perhaps less resilient? Or do they have a worse healthcare and social system? I don't know. It is simply strange. I will leave it at that; I don't have the answers. I am only presenting it here as something to think about. 

What do the data from the Czech Republic tell us?

There were no excess heat-related deaths here in week 26, even though it was also very hot.

Weekly death toll in the Czech Republic

We see only a peak at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, that is, during the second wave of COVID, which was actually the first wave here, because COVID almost completely avoided us in the spring of 2020.

But let's take a more detailed look at the peak from the first half of 2021. We know from EuroMOMO that it had a different age structure. Does it have a similar structure in the Czech Republic?

Weekly number of deaths in the Czech Republic in the age group 45 to 64 years
Weekly number of deaths in the Czech Republic in the age group 85 years and older

Yes, it has a similar age structure. During this period, more younger people died than is usual for excess mortality during the peaks of COVID. We can see the typical characteristics of COVID excess mortality in week 44 of 2020 (dark green curve). Older people die much more than younger people. But this does not apply to the peak around week 11 of 2021 (black curve). Excess mortality among old people is not particularly high, but in the 45-to-64 age group, a much larger percentage of people are dying than usual. What was happening during this period? What caused it?

State authorities and scientific institutions should be looking for the answer to that. I do not want to speculate here; one global event that could have caused it comes to mind. But without the necessary data, we simply don't know, as if someone had an interest in making sure that we don't know.


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References:

EuroMOMO

Počet zemřelých - týdenní a měsíční časové řady

 

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